Age-specific transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 during the first two years of the pandemic

During its first two years, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic manifested as multiple waves shaped by complex interactions between variants of concern, non-pharmaceutical interventions, and the immunological landscape of the population. Understanding how the age-specific epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 has evolved throughout the pandemic is crucial for informing policy decisions. We developed an inference-based modelling approach to reconstruct the burden of true infections and hospital admissions in children, adolescents and adults over the seven waves of four variants (wild-type, Alpha, Delta, Omicron BA.1) during the first two years of the pandemic, using the Netherlands as the motivating example. We find that reported cases are a considerable underestimate and a generally poor predictor of true infection burden, especially because case reporting differs by age. The contribution of children and adolescents to total infection and hospitalization burden increased with successive variants and was largest during the Omicron BA.1 period. Before the Delta period, almost all infections were primary infections occurring in naive individuals. During the Delta and Omicron BA.1 periods, primary infections were common in children but relatively rare in adults who experienced either re-infections or breakthrough infections. Our approach can be used to understand age-specific epidemiology through successive waves in other countries where random community surveys uncovering true SARS-CoV-2 dynamics are absent but basic surveillance and statistics data are available.
Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures, 1 table; supplementary materials to the main text available at https://github.com/oboldea/COVID_age_regions