CDF II $W$-mass anomaly faces first-order electroweak phase transition

We suggest an appealing strategy to probe a large class of scenarios beyond the Standard Model simultaneously explaining the recent CDF II measurement of the $W$ boson mass and predicting first-order phase transitions (FOPT) testable in future gravitational-wave (GW) experiments. Our analysis deploys measurements from the GW channels and high energy particle colliders. We discuss this methodology focusing on the specific example provided by an extension of the Standard Model of particle physics that incorporates an additional scalar $\mathrm{SU}(2)_{\rm L}$ triplet coupled to the Higgs boson. We show that within this scenario a strong electroweak FOPT is naturally realised consistently with the measured $W$ boson mass-shift. Potentially observable GW signatures imply the triplet mass scale to be TeV-ish, consistently with the value preferred by the $W$ mass anomaly. This model can be tested in future space-based interferometers such as LISA, DECIGO, BBO, TianQin, TAIJI projects and in future colliders such as FCC, ILC, CEPC.
Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures; references added; discussion extended; full numerical analysis including one-loop corrections performed in support of initial claims; two extra figures with parameter scan results and SNR for LISA added; included an author that, due to an unfortunate editing mistake in the first version was accidentally not included; conclusions unchanged; acknowledgments extended