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Errors-in-variables Modeling of Personalized Treatment-Response Trajectories
- Publication Year :
- 2019
-
Abstract
- Estimating the effect of a treatment on a given outcome, conditioned on a vector of covariates, is central in many applications. However, learning the impact of a treatment on a continuous temporal response, when the covariates suffer extensively from measurement error and even the timing of the treatments is uncertain, has not been addressed. We introduce a novel data-driven method that can estimate treatment-response trajectories in this challenging scenario. We model personalized treatment-response curves as a combination of parametric response functions, hierarchically sharing information across individuals, and a sparse Gaussian process for the baseline trend. Importantly, our model considers measurement error not only in treatment covariates, but also in treatment times, a problem which arises in practice for example when treatment information is based on self-reporting. In a challenging and timely problem of estimating the impact of diet on continuous blood glucose measurements, our model leads to significant improvements in estimation accuracy and prediction.
- Subjects :
- Computer Science - Machine Learning
Statistics - Machine Learning
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- arXiv
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- edsarx.1906.03989
- Document Type :
- Working Paper