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Mean Field Voter Model of Election to the House of Representatives in Japan
- Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- In this study, we propose a mechanical model of a plurality election based on a mean field voter model. We assume that there are three candidates in each electoral district, i.e., one from the ruling party, one from the main opposition party, and one from other political parties. The voters are classified as fixed supporters and herding (floating) voters with ratios of $1-p$ and $p$, respectively. Fixed supporters make decisions based on their information and herding voters make the same choice as another randomly selected voter. The equilibrium vote-share probability density of herding voters follows a Dirichlet distribution. We estimate the composition of fixed supporters in each electoral district and $p$ using data from elections to the House of Representatives in Japan (43rd to 47th). The spatial inhomogeneity of fixed supporters explains the long-range spatial and temporal correlations. The estimated values of $p$ are close to the estimates obtained from a survey.<br />Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures
- Subjects :
- Physics - Physics and Society
Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability
Subjects
Details
- Database :
- arXiv
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- edsarx.1702.03603
- Document Type :
- Working Paper
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.7566/JPSCP.16.011016