Coexistence of two dengue virus serotypes and forecasting for Madeira island

The first outbreak of dengue occurred in Madeira Island on 2012, featuring one virus serotype. Aedes aegypti was the vector of the disease and it is unlikely that it will be eliminated from the island. Therefore, a new outbreak of dengue fever can occur and, if it happens, risk to the population increases if two serotypes coexist. In this paper, mathematical modeling and numerical simulations are carried out to forecast what may happen in Madeira Island in such scenario.
Comment: This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form is in 'Operations Research For Health Care', ISSN 2211-6923. Paper submitted 21/Nov/2014; revised 17/May/2015 and 07/Jul/2015; accepted for publication 14/Jul/2015