Modelling View-count Dynamics in YouTube

The goal of this paper is to study the behaviour of view-count in YouTube. We first propose several bio-inspired models for the evolution of the view-count of YouTube videos. We show, using a large set of empirical data, that the view-count for 90% of videos in YouTube can indeed be associated to at least one of these models, with a Mean Error which does not exceed 5%. We derive automatic ways of classifying the view-count curve into one of these models and of extracting the most suitable parameters of the model. We study empirically the impact of videos' popularity and category on the evolution of its view-count. We finally use the above classification along with the automatic parameters extraction in order to predict the evolution of videos' view-count.
Comment: Technical report, 10 pages. Added MER definition analysis. Added interval confidence intervals. Added prediction results