Back to Search
Start Over
On a generalised model for time-dependent variance with long-term memory
- Source :
- EPL, 80 (2007) 30005
- Publication Year :
- 2007
-
Abstract
- The ARCH process (R. F. Engle, 1982) constitutes a paradigmatic generator of stochastic time series with time-dependent variance like it appears on a wide broad of systems besides economics in which ARCH was born. Although the ARCH process captures the so-called "volatility clustering" and the asymptotic power-law probability density distribution of the random variable, it is not capable to reproduce further statistical properties of many of these time series such as: the strong persistence of the instantaneous variance characterised by large values of the Hurst exponent (H > 0.8), and asymptotic power-law decay of the absolute values self-correlation function. By means of considering an effective return obtained from a correlation of past returns that has a q-exponential form we are able to fix the limitations of the original model. Moreover, this improvement can be obtained through the correct choice of a sole additional parameter, $q_{m}$. The assessment of its validity and usefulness is made by mimicking daily fluctuations of SP500 financial index.<br />Comment: 6 pages, 4 figures
Details
- Database :
- arXiv
- Journal :
- EPL, 80 (2007) 30005
- Publication Type :
- Report
- Accession number :
- edsarx.0705.3248
- Document Type :
- Working Paper
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1209/0295-5075/80/30005