[Impacts of human activity on Bayin River runoff as revealed by tree rings in Qaidam Basin, China]

Evaluating the impacts of human activity on river runoff has important implications for regional water resource management. Here, we used seven tree-ring width chronologies to establish a regional mean tree-ring width chronology from the northern mountain of Delingha, Qaidam Basin. We conducted the correlation, moving correlation and regression analysis of regional mean tree-ring width chronology with runoff data from Bayin River gauge station. Then, we stimulated the June runoff of Bayin River from 1956 to 2002. The results showed that the highest correlation coefficient was found for June runoff (评估人类活动对径流的影响,对区域水资源开发管理有借鉴和指导意义。利用柴达木盆地北部山区7个祁连圆柏树轮宽度数据,建立区域平均树轮宽度年表。通过对区域平均树轮宽度年表与巴音河水文站径流量进行相关、滑动相关和回归分析,模拟了巴音河1956—2002年6月天然径流量变化,进而分析出人类活动对径流量的影响。结果表明: 树轮平均年表与6月径流量的相关性最强(