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Predict pancreatic fistula after pancreaticoduodenectomy: ratio body thickness/main duct
- Source :
- ANZ journal of surgery. 88(5)
- Publication Year :
- 2017
-
Abstract
- The occurrence of post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) after pancreaticoduodenectomy is a challenging issue. The aim was to identify variables on preoperative computed tomography (CT) scan, useful to predict clinically significant POPF (grades B-C) after pancreaticoduodenectomy.Patients presented POPF after pancreaticoduodenectomy were included from two tertiary referral centres. B/W ratio was defined by ratio of pancreas body thickness (B) to main pancreatic duct (W). The predictive parameters of POPF on CT scan were assessed with a receiving operator characteristics (ROC) curve and intrinsic characteristics.Between 2010 and 2013, 186 patients who underwent pancreaticoduodenectomy were included. POPF occurred in 25% of them, and was clinically significant in 13%. After univariate analysis, endocrine tumours (P = 0.03), main pancreatic duct size (P 0.01) and B/W ratio (P = 0.04) were significantly associated with POPF. ROC curve showed a greater area under curve for B/W ratio (0.68) than for main pancreatic duct size (0.33). A 3.8 threshold displayed 80 and 51% for sensibility and specificity, respectively, and a negative predictive value of 94%. A B/W ratio3.8 increased the rates of post-operative haemorrhage (odds ratio = 4.3 (1.4-13.2), P = 0.01), and reintervention (odds ratio = 3.4 (1.2-9.6), P = 0.02).B/W ratio superior to 3.8 assessed on preoperative CT scan may be an easy tool to predict clinically significant POPF after pancreaticoduodenectomy.
Details
- ISSN :
- 14452197
- Volume :
- 88
- Issue :
- 5
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- ANZ journal of surgery
- Accession number :
- edsair.pmid..........c802809eb1b9250fb274a1f569ab1ea7