Long-term risk factors for bleeding after first course of endoscopic injection sclerotherapy: a univariate and multivariate analysis

The purpose of this study was to define the risk factors linked to the rupture of esophageal varices following endoscopic injection sclerotherapy. A total of 197 patients with esophageal varices who had been treated by endoscopic injection sclerotherapy between 1985 and 1991 were observed for post-therapeutic bleeding from esophageal varices. Among 197 patients, 96 had esophageal varices and concomitant hepatocellular carcinoma. Analysis by the multivariate Cox's proportional hazard model disclosed that incomplete eradication of esophageal varices, the presence of hepatocellular carcinoma, and Child-Pugh classes were statistically significant predictors for rupture of esophageal varices after sclerotherapy. We conclude that complete eradication of esophageal varices is essential for sustained effectiveness of endoscopic injection sclerotherapy. The presence of hepatocellular carcinoma and a lack of hepatic functional reserve, as indicated by Child's classification, are also major determinants of post-therapeutic bleeding.