Factors Predicting Subsequent Hospitalization in Patients with Ulcerative Colitis: Total Colonoscopic Findings are the Strongest Predictor

Patients with ulcerative colitis suffer from long term impairment of quality of life, especially when subjected to repeated hospitalization. We aimed to identify factors that may predict future hospitalization.We followed 139 consecutive patients with ulcerative colitis for average of 11.2 years (2.8 to 49.5 years) from the onset. Clinical and endoscopic stagings were determined by Japanese staging system, the extent of colitis by Montreal classification and endoscopic grading by Matts' grade.Overall hospitalization rate was 37% at 5 years, 47% at 10 years and 60% at 20 years from the onset. Of 5 parameters including demographic and staging scores, univariate analysis revealed clinical severity at onset (p = 0.003), total colonoscopic findings on severity (Matts' grade, p = 0.003), and total colonoscopic findings on sites of abnormality (p = 0.012) were significantly correlated with hospitalization. By multivariate analysis, total colonoscopic findings on sites of abnormality was the only baseline character significantly related to the need of hospitalization (p = 0.0007). In fact, 5/10/20 years hospitalization rates were only 18/26/33 percent for proctitis type, whereas those were 61/72/90 for total colitis type.The total colonoscopic finding on sites of abnormality at the onset is the only predictdr of hospitalization in patients with ulcerative colitis.