Time Series Models for Short Term Prediction of the Incidence of Japanese Encephalitis in Xianyang City, P R China

Objective To construct a model of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) for forecasting the epidemic of Japanese encephalitis (JE) in Xianyang, Shaanxi, China, and provide valuable reference information for JE control and prevention. Methods Theoretically epidemiologic study was employed in the research process. Monthly incidence data on JE for the period from Jan 2005 to Sep 2014 were obtained from a passive surveillance system at the Center for Diseases Prevention and Control in Xianyang, Shaanxi province. An optimal SARIMA model was developed for JE incidence from 2005 to 2013 with the Box and Jenkins approach. This SARIMA model could predict JE incidence for the year 2014 and 2015. Results SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1)