Neutral null models for diversity in serial transfer evolution experiments

Evolution experiments with microorganisms coupled with genome-wide sequencing now allow for the systematic study of population genetic processes under a wide range of conditions. In learning about these processes in natural, sexual populations, neutral models that describe the behavior of diversity and divergence summaries have played a pivotal role. It is therefore natural to ask whether neutral models, suitably modified, could be useful in the context of evolution experiments. Here, we introduce coalescent models for polymorphism and divergence under the most common experimental evolution assay, a serial transfer experiment. This relatively simple setting allows us to address several issues that could affect diversity patterns in evolution experiments, whether selection is operating or not: the transient behavior of neutral polymorphism in an experiment beginning from a single clone, the effects of randomness in the timing of cell division and noisiness in population size in the dilution stage. In our analyses and discussion, we emphasize the implications for experiments aimed at measuring diversity patterns and making inferences about population genetic processes based on these measurements.