Changes in the recruitment patterns of the economic and political elites in Serbia

U tekstu se analizira promena regrutacijskih obrazaca ekonomske i političke elite u Srbiji na osnovu podataka prikupljenih u našim anketnim istraživanjima u 1989, 1993. i 2004. godini. Naša hipoteza je da su se obrasci regrutacije elita promenili nakon promene političkog režima u 2000. godini, ali u drugačijem pravcu nego tokom 1990-ih. Iz dugoročne perspektive, očekujemo dalji porast značaja visokog obrazovanja za regrutaciju elita i izjednačavanje njegovog značaja za regrutaciju političke i ekonomske elite. S druge strane, očekujemo opadanje značaja pripadnosti vladajućim političkim partijama kod ekonomske elite, zajedno sa rastućim značajem društvenog umrežavanja u periodu produžene slabosti institucionalnog okruženja. Da bismo proverili našu opštu hipotezu opisaćemo među- i unutar-generacijske obrasce pokretljivosti. Značaj obrazovanja, pripadnosti političkim strankama i umrežavanja kao kanala pokretljivosti analiziramo putem modela logističke regresije. Takođe, poredimo promene u regrutacijskim obrascima elite sa promenama u obrascima pokretljivosti društvenih klasa u Srbiji, u periodu 1989-2004. In this paper the changing patterns of economic and political elite recruitment in Serbia are studied on the basis of three sets of data, collected in our surveys done in 1989, 1993 and 2004. Our hypothesis was that elite recruitment patterns changed after the political regime change in 2000, but in a different direction compared to the period of the 1990s. From a long-term perspective, we expect continuing increases in the relevance of higher education for elite recruitment, and equalization of the relevance of higher education for both the political and economic elites. On the other hand, we expect decreasing relevance for political affiliation among the economic elite, accompanied by an increasing importance of social networking during the period of a prolonged weak institutional environment. In order to test our general hypothesis we describe inter- and intra-generational patterns of recruitment. The relevance of education, party membership and networking as mobility channels is analyzed by model of logistic regression. We also compare changes in patterns of elites’ recruitment with changing mobility patterns of social classes in Serbia, 1989-2004.