National CO2 budgets (2015–2020) inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations in support of the global stocktake

Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO2 is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries’ carbon budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCO2 ) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO2 measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with “bottom-up” estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1◦ × 1 ◦ gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites’ (CEOS) website: https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92 (Byrne et al., 2022). Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 PgCO2 yr−1 (0.90–1.25 PgC yr−1 ). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems. This research has been supported by the European Commission, Horizon 2020 Framework Programme (CoCO2 (grant no. 958927 856612/EMME-CARE)) and Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (grant no. CAMS73), the Australian Research Council (grant nos. DP190100180, DE180100203, DP160100598, LE0668470, DP140101552, DP110103118, DP0879468 and FT180100327), the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (grant no. JPMEERF21S20800), the Korea Meteorological Administration (grant no. KMA2018-00320), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (grant nos. 20-OCOST20-0004, 80NSSC18K0908, 80NSSC18K0976, 80NSSC20K0006, 80NSSC21K1068, 80NSSC21K1073, 80NSSC21K1077, 80NSSC21K1080, 80HQTR21T0069, NAG512247, NNG05GD07G, NNH17ZDA001N-OCO2 and NNX15AG93G), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (grant no. NA18OAR4310266).