O impacto da emiss??o de material particulado sobre a sa??de respirat??ria da popula????o de Manaus no per??odo de 2008 a 2019

Submitted by PATRY BOSCA (boscapatry@gmail.com) on 2021-04-22T23:40:07Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Disserta????o_Vers??o Final.pdf: 3448279 bytes, checksum: 1579fb9050f387118f2bcc2b926cbb41 (MD5) Rejected by PPGCASA Ci??ncias do Ambiente e Sustentabilidade na Amaz??nia (ppgcasasecretaria@ufam.edu.br), reason: Falta incluir os arquivos da Carta para Autodep??sito e Ata de Defesa on 2021-04-26T16:56:06Z (GMT) Submitted by PATRY BOSCA (boscapatry@gmail.com) on 2021-05-05T12:33:31Z No. of bitstreams: 3 Disserta????o_Vers??o Final.pdf: 3448279 bytes, checksum: 1579fb9050f387118f2bcc2b926cbb41 (MD5) CartaEncaminhamentoTCC-TESE-DISSERTA????O-1.pdf: 153570 bytes, checksum: 0a0f8040ad1fafe896d094c9b0c489e1 (MD5) Ata Patry Assinada.pdf: 519192 bytes, checksum: 2d92a61675cd7acacc4c70f5413ac4fe (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by PPGCASA Ci??ncias do Ambiente e Sustentabilidade na Amaz??nia (ppgcasasecretaria@ufam.edu.br) on 2021-05-05T16:46:16Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 3 Disserta????o_Vers??o Final.pdf: 3448279 bytes, checksum: 1579fb9050f387118f2bcc2b926cbb41 (MD5) CartaEncaminhamentoTCC-TESE-DISSERTA????O-1.pdf: 153570 bytes, checksum: 0a0f8040ad1fafe896d094c9b0c489e1 (MD5) Ata Patry Assinada.pdf: 519192 bytes, checksum: 2d92a61675cd7acacc4c70f5413ac4fe (MD5) Approved for entry into archive by Divis??o de Documenta????o/BC Biblioteca Central (ddbc@ufam.edu.br) on 2021-05-05T18:38:23Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 3 Disserta????o_Vers??o Final.pdf: 3448279 bytes, checksum: 1579fb9050f387118f2bcc2b926cbb41 (MD5) CartaEncaminhamentoTCC-TESE-DISSERTA????O-1.pdf: 153570 bytes, checksum: 0a0f8040ad1fafe896d094c9b0c489e1 (MD5) Ata Patry Assinada.pdf: 519192 bytes, checksum: 2d92a61675cd7acacc4c70f5413ac4fe (MD5) Made available in DSpace on 2021-05-05T18:38:23Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 3 Disserta????o_Vers??o Final.pdf: 3448279 bytes, checksum: 1579fb9050f387118f2bcc2b926cbb41 (MD5) CartaEncaminhamentoTCC-TESE-DISSERTA????O-1.pdf: 153570 bytes, checksum: 0a0f8040ad1fafe896d094c9b0c489e1 (MD5) Ata Patry Assinada.pdf: 519192 bytes, checksum: 2d92a61675cd7acacc4c70f5413ac4fe (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021-04-07 The advancement of the debate about environmental issue has reoriented traditional economic theory, in the sense that the problem of scarcity of ecosystem goods and services is based on the analytical basis of Neoclassical Theory. In contrast to Environmental Economics, Ecological Economics refutes the hypothesis that technological advances can offer solutions in an undetermined way to the limits that the environment offers to economic growth. In addition to the traditional dilemma about compatibility between the economy and the environment, the health problems to which the populations of large cities are exposed are added due to how much and how anthropic processes are expanding in large urban centers, such as the case of Manaus. The hypothesis is that sources of particulate matter present in the city, such as: the vehicle fleet, the generation of fossil fuel-based thermoelectric energy, the refining of oil and the number of burnings influence the number of hospitalizations due to respiratory problems in the city. Based on this triad: Economy, Environment and Health, this research aimed to: (i) analyze how the main anthropic air pollution actions evolved in Manaus; (ii) estimate the amount of annual particulate matter emission from the main potentially polluting urban industrial activities in the years 2014 to 2019 and; (iii) verify if the concentration of particulate matter in the atmosphere of Manaus were associated with the number of hospitalizations due to respiratory problems in the city in the period from 2008 to 2019. To this, a historical review was made of the transition process of the capital's energy matrix, the characterization of the quantity and composition of the fleet, the quantification and description of the characteristics of the refining process in Manaus. The particulate matter emission inventory was made based on estimates based on the method of using emission factors, which represent an average emission of pollutants from different sources. Finally, Linear Models, Generalized Linear Models and Generalized Additive Models were tested to verify the best fit to verify if there was an association between the concentration of particulate matter in the atmosphere and the number of hospitalizations in Manaus, as well as, if there was an association between the evolution of human activities and the number of hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in the period from 2008 to 2019. It was found that the generation of thermoelectric energy was the main source of emission of particulate material in Manaus during almost the entire period analyzed, but with successive and significant reductions from the introduction of natural gas in the city's energy matrix. In the last year of the series, the main source of emission of particulate matter in Manaus was the vehicle fleet, a trend consistent with large urban centers in Brazil and the world. Regarding hospitalizations, generalized additive models with Poisson regression, with smoothing curves for seasonality adjustments due to climatic factors and months and years indicators, showed the most consistent results. It was not possible to establish an association between the concentration of PM2.5 and the number of hospitalizations, neither by the total nor by the number of occurrences by age groups. These episodes seem to be better explained by cases of Influenza, whose seasonality peaks in the rainy months in the Amazon. However, the GAM model showed a strong association between the intensity of the generation of thermoelectric energy, the vehicle fleet, the quantity of fires and the concentration of PM2.5 itself, which may indicate that another atmospheric pollutant resulting from urban economic activity may influence hospital visits for respiratory problems in the city of Manaus. The absence of observational data on the characterization of the vehicle fleet and the concentration of pollutants in the atmosphere of Manaus, may represent some kind of weakness in the results presented. O avan??o do debate acerca da quest??o ambiental reorientou a teoria econ??mica tradicional, no sentido de comportar na base anal??tica da Teoria Neocl??ssica o problema da escassez dos bens e servi??os ecossist??micos. Em contraponto ?? Economia Ambiental, a Economia Ecol??gica refuta a hip??tese de que o avan??o tecnol??gico possa oferecer solu????es de forma indeterminada aos limites que o meio ambiente oferece ao crescimento econ??mico. Ao dilema tradicional que h?? entre compatibiliza????o entre economia e meio ambiente, acrescentam-se os problemas de sa??de a que as popula????es das grandes cidades est??o expostas em virtude do quanto e de como os processos antr??picos est??o se expandindo nos grandes centros urbanos, como ?? o caso de Manaus. A hip??tese ?? a de que fontes de material particulado presentes na cidade, tais como: a frota de ve??culos, a gera????o de energia termel??trica baseada em combust??veis f??sseis, o refino de petr??leo e a quantidade de queimadas influenciam a quantidade de internamentos por problemas respirat??rios na cidade. Com base nessa tr??ade: Economia, Meio Ambiente e Sa??de, esta pesquisa teve como objetivos: (i) analisar o modo como as principais a????es antr??picas de polui????o do ar evolu??ram em Manaus; (ii) estimar o montante de emiss??o de material particulado anual das principais atividades industriais urbanas potencialmente poluidoras nos anos de 2014 a 2019 e; (iii) verificar se a concentra????o de material particulado na atmosfera de Manaus esteve associada ?? quantidade de internamentos por problemas respirat??rios na cidade no per??odo de 2008 a 2019. Para tanto, foi feito um resgate hist??rico do processo de transi????o da matriz energ??tica da capital, a caracteriza????o da quantidade e da composi????o da frota, a quantifica????o e a descri????o das caracter??sticas do processo de refino em Manaus. O invent??rio de emiss??o de material particulado foi feito a partir de estimativas baseadas no m??todo de utiliza????o de fatores de emiss??o, que representam uma m??dia de emiss??o de poluentes de diversas fontes. Por fim, foram testados Modelos Lineares, Modelos Generalizados Lineares e Modelos Aditivos Generalizados para verificar qual o melhor ajuste para verificar se houve associa????o entre a concentra????o de material particulado na atmosfera e o n??mero de internamentos em Manaus, bem como, se havia associa????o entre a evolu????o das atividades antr??picas e o n??mero de internamentos por doen??as respirat??rias no per??odo de 2008 a 2019. Verificou-se que a gera????o de energia termel??trica foi a principal fonte de emiss??o de material particulado em Manaus durante quase todo o per??odo analisado, mas com sucessivas e expressivas redu????es a partir da introdu????o do g??s natural na matriz energ??tica da cidade. No ??ltimo ano da s??rie, a principal fonte de emiss??o de material particulado em Manaus foi a frota de ve??culos, uma tend??ncia condizente com grandes centros urbanos do Brasil e do mundo. Relativamente aos internamentos, os modelos aditivos generalizados com regress??o de Poisson, com curvas de suaviza????o de ajustes de sazonalidade por fatores clim??ticos e indicadores de meses e anos, foi o que apresentou resultados mais consistentes. N??o foi poss??vel estabelecer associa????o entre concentra????o de PM2,5 e quantidade de internamentos, nem pelo total, nem pela quantidade de ocorr??ncias por faixas et??rias. Estes epis??dios parecem ser melhor explicados por casos de Influenza, cuja sazonalidade apresenta picos nos meses de chuva na Amaz??nia. No entanto, o modelo GAM apresentou forte associa????o entre a intensidade da gera????o de energia termel??trica, da frota de ve??culos, da quantidade de queimadas e da pr??pria concentra????o de PM2,5, o que pode indicar que outro poluente atmosf??rico fruto da atividade econ??mica urbana pode influenciar em atendimentos hospitalares por problemas respirat??rios na cidade de Manaus. A aus??ncia de dados observacionais relativos ?? caracteriza????o da frota de ve??culos e da concentra????o de poluentes na atmosfera de Manaus, podem representar algum tipo de fragilidade nos resultados apresentados.