NET-ZERO-2050 Cluster: Defining the german carbon budget, Version #2

The Net-Zero-2050 cluster aims for a national roadmap for net zero CO2 emissions by 2050, including integrated scenario analyses and negative emission technology assessment (see fact sheet Net-Zero-2050 Structure Project 1). This national target to substantially reduce national CO2 emissions by 2050 stems from the objective to comply with the global long-term temperature goal of well below 2°C of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015). Within the cluster it is therefore important to decide on an approach for deriving a national remaining carbon budget from global emissions trajectories in agreement with the Paris Climate Agreement’s longterm temperature goal (UNFCCC, 2015). Allocating national carbon budgets is a balance of environmental effectiveness, equity, national capacity and ability, political feasibility, economic efficiency and technical requirements (Gignac and Matthews, 2015; Höhne et al., 2003; 2014). Given Germany’s capacity and abilities, we decided to follow a sustainable growth trajectory with a convergence phase to equal-per-capita CO2 emissions by 2035, and a net zero CO2 emissions trajectory after 2050 until the end of the century. This approach leads to a remaining Germany CO2 budget of 9 GtCO2 (from 1st January 2018 to 2050 and 2100), which we propose to be used across the Net-Zero-2050 cluster. The remaining carbon budget will serve as a target to be used in all work packages in a concerted way, either qualitatively or quantitatively, and in accordance with other work packages (see also fact sheet Net-Zero-2050 Energy Scenario Approach). The calculated budget is at the lower end of the national budget if allocated by the grandfathering approach (emissions are allocated with respect to today’s emissions shares: 5.5-13.1 GtCO2), but slightly higher than the highest estimate of an equal-per-capita remaining carbon budget (emissions are allocated with respect to Germany’s share of the global population: 3.5-8.4 GtCO2) The 9 GtCO2 national remaining CO2 budget, 6.9 GtCO2 from 1st January 2021, will need to be broken down by category (e.g. energy, land use, industrial processes, and man-made sinks and sources; see Gap Analysis Report) in order to provide a consistent approach across work packages.