Sustainable global wheat supply scenarios under future climate change impacts

Climate change is predicted to have impacts on agricultural productivity which, coupled with growth in population, will make sustainably feeding the world extremely challenging. While some parts of the world are expected to benefit from moderate climate-change related temperature increases and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations, others are likely to face worsening agricultural production conditions. Even those regions benefiting from changing average conditions are likely to face more frequent extreme weather events which make agricultural production and food supply more volatile than it already is.This paper uses the example of wheat, as one of the most important staple crops worldwide to explore climate change issues relevant to supply and demand. Published data on current and projected wheat yields under different adaptation strategies are used to analyse the extent to which global production can be increased to match projected demands. A set of wheat supply scenarios was developed which shows that the increasing demand can only be provided by northern hemisphere producers narrowing their yield gaps, utilising climate change benefits and increasing production levels to supply southern hemisphere consumers. Even then there are significant risks associated with food security and resilience which could jeopardise the ability to service the future global wheat demand.