Ali lahko družbena omrežja vplivajo na povečanje donosov na finančnih trgih?

Background and Purpose: In recent years classic financial market theory based on decision makers’ rationality has been challenged by repeated anomalies that became a ‘new normal’. As a result, what we witness today is a considerable turn to behavioral concepts that can shed a new light on choices made by market participants. The astonishing development of social media accelerated scientific validation of such concepts, since the media opened new and capacious ‘laboratory space’ for testing behavioral hypotheses. The main purpose of the article is to examine whether financial market professionals believe that social media content can be useful in achieving additional financial market returns and to investigate the factors behind this belief. Design/Methodology/Approach: We surveyed a sample of over 400 financial market professionals at institutions operating in Poland, and analyzed the results using logit regression models. Results: We established that almost 60% of the surveyed finance professionals recognized the potential of social media for achieving additional returns. We also found out that the differences in respondents’ perception of this potential could be explained mainly by heterogeneity of their job experience and, to a lesser degree, by their job position. Interestingly, more experienced individuals were less likely to recognize this potential. Firm-specific factors did not have a significant effect on the dependent variable. Conclusion: The opinions of financial market professionals regarding the link between social media and additional returns are mixed, which is consistent with the current body of evidence brought by sentiment-based research. Our findings confirm the key role of previous experience in explaining attitudes towards novelties and innovations (such as social media), a phenomenon known from other fields and everyday experience. Ozadje in namen: V zadnjih letih se je pokazalo vse več dvomov v ustreznost klasične teorije finančnih trgov, ki temelji na racionalnosti odločevalcev. Ponavljajo se anomalije in odstopanja od te teorije, ki postajajo »nova normal­nost«. Zato strokovnjaki posvečajo vse več pozornosti vedenjskim konceptom, ki se lahko z drugega vidika osvetlijo odločitve udeležencev na finančnem trgu. Hitri razvoj družbenih medijev je spodbudil raziskave, ki bi proučevale takšne koncepte, saj so mediji odprli nov “laboratorijski prostor” za preverjanje vedenjskih hipotez. Glavni namen članka je preučiti, ali strokovnjaki na finančnem trgu verjamejo, da je mogoče vsebine družbenih medijev uporabiti za doseganje dodatnih donosov na finančnih trgih, in identificirati dejavnike, ki vplivajo na te donose. Zasnova / metodologija / pristop: V raziskavi smo zajeli vzorec več kot 400 strokovnjakov na finančnih trgih v insti­tucijah, ki delujejo na Poljskem, in analizirali rezultate z uporabo logit regresijskih modelov. Rezultati: Skoraj 60% anketiranih finančnih strokovnjakov prepoznava potencial družbenih medijev za doseganje dodatnih donosov. Ugotovili smo tudi, da bi lahko razlike v zaznavanju tega potenciala pojasnila predvsem heterog­enost njihovih delovnih izkušenj in, v manjši meri, njihovo delovno mesto. Pokazalo se je, da izkušeni strokovnjaki manj verjetno prepoznajo te možnosti manj izkušeni posamezniki. Za posamezna podjetja specifični dejavniki po naših ugotovitvah nimajo pomembnega vpliva na dodatne donose. Zaključek: Mnenja strokovnjakov na finančnih trgih glede povezave med družbenimi mediji in dodatnimi donosi, so mešano. To se sklada z ugotovitvami, ki jih so jih prinesle študije, ki temeljijo na raziskovanju občutkov.. Naše ugoto­vitve potrjujejo ključno vlogo predhodnih izkušenj pri pojasnjevanju odnosa do novosti in inovacij (kot so družbeni mediji), pojav, znan iz drugih področij in iz vsakdanjih izkušenj.