Environment as an (In)stability Factor

Namen prispevka: Namen prispevka je predstaviti dejstvo, da spremembe okolja vplivajo na varnostno okolje v državah in v regijah po svetu. Tradicionalni indikatorji, s katerimi ocenjujemo varnostno okolje v neki državi ali regiji, so znani. Navadno so vezani na ekonomsko, politično in socialno okolje države ali regije, na delovanje državne uprave, sodstva, na stopnjo korupcije in kriminala. Okoljske spremembe in naravni viri (navadno njihova omejenost) imajo vpliv na varnostno situacijo v posameznih državah in regijah. Zato bi moralo stanje okolja v državah in regijah postati tudi eden od ključnih indikatorjev, na podlagi katerega se ocenjuje varnostno okolje posamezne države ali regije v svetu. Metode: Za namen prispevka so bile uporabljene ključne kvalitativne metode, deskriptivna metoda, analiza vsebin, primarnih in sekundarnih virov. Ugotovitve: Ugotavljamo, da se države, mednarodne organizacije, predvsem pa nevladne organizacije že vsaj 30 let zavedajo globalnih klimatskih sprememb in s tem sprememb okolja in okoljske varnosti. Države po svetu okoljske grožnje uvrščajo med grožnje nacionalni varnosti in v ta namen pripravljajo različne strategije delovanja v boju proti okoljskim spremembam. Tradicionalni indikatorji stopnje varnostne ogroženosti so znani in definirani. Na njihovi podlagi izdelujejo svoje ocene mednarodne organizacije, obveščevalne službe, instituti, nevladne organizacije in različne znanstvene ustanove. Indikatorje, s katerimi bi merili vpliv okolja na potencialni konflikt, pa bo potrebno še identificirati in jih določiti. Omejitve raziskave: Raziskava je omejena na javno dostopne vire. Praktična uporabnost: Vsebina informira širok krog zainteresirane javnosti o okoljskih spremembah kot možnem vzroku napetosti in konfliktov v državah in regijah ter o pomembnosti, da se okoljski indikatorji upoštevajo pri ocenjevanju varnostnega okolja. Izvirnost/pomembnost prispevka: Prispevek utemeljuje, da je ena od možnih posledic globalnih okoljskih sprememb tudi konflikt večjih ali manjših razsežnosti. To ima posreden vpliv tudi na nacionalno varnost držav, ki na območje pošljejo vojaške enote v operacijo kriznega odzivanja in za stabilizacijo razmer, zato bi moralo okolje postati eden od opozorilnih indikatorjev glede varnostnega okolja v neki državi ali regiji. Purpose: The purpose of the following contribution is to present the fact that environmental changes influence the security environment in states and regions around the world. The traditional indicators used to assess the security environment in a certain state or regions are well established. Usually they are related to the economic, political and social environment of that state or region, the functioning of the state administration, judiciary and levels of corruption and crime. Environmental change and natural resources (or usually the lack thereof) have an impact on the security situation in individual states and regions. Therefore the state of the environment in states and regions should become one of the key indicators on the basis of which the security environments of certain states or regions in the world are assessed. Design/Methods/Approach: The methodology includes key qualitative methods, descriptive methods and analysis of contents as well as primary and secondary sources. Findings: We can establish that states, international organizations and especially nongovernmental organizations have been aware of the global climate changes and the consequent environmental and security environment changes for at least thirty years. The states all around the world include environmental threats among the threats to national security. To this end various strategies of dealing with environmental changes have been established. Traditional indicators of the security threat levels are known and well defined. They are used as the basis for the assessments carried out by international organizations, intelligence services, institutes, nongovernmental organizations and various scientific institutions. However, the indicators for measuring the influence of environment on the potential conflicts have yet to be identified and specified. Research limitations/implications: The research is limited to publicly accessible resources. Practical implications: The research contains information for a wide range of stakeholders on environmental changes as a possible reason for tensions and conflicts in the states and regions as well as on the importance of considering the environmental indicators when assessing the security environment. Originality/Value: The contribution establishes that one of the possible consequences of global environmental changes is also a conflict on a larger or smaller scale. This also indirectly affects the national security of states sending military units to certain territories in the context of crisis response operations and situation stabilization. Therefore environmental security should become one of the warning indicators with regard to the security environment in certain countries or regions.