Renewable technologies in the EU electricity sector: trends and projections: Analysis in the framework of the EU 2030 climate and energy strategy

With the ratification of the COP 21 Paris climate agreement, EU climate change policy entered a new phase with more ambitious climate and energy goals for 2030. The EU electricity sector is witnessing its greatest transformation to date because of the rapid deployment of renewables in the form of wind power and solar photovoltaic (PV). Wind and solar PV have been at the forefront of recent growth in renewables-based capacity, although biomass is by far the largest source of renewables-based energy consumption in the EU today. In 2016, installed wind-power capacity surpassed the capacity of both coal and lignite and became the second biggest electricity source in the EU. In the same year, renewables accounted for nearly 86 % of new electricity capacity. The pace of progress for solar PV since 2010 has been impressive: it achieved in 5 years what was expected to take 15 years. The costs of producing electricity using these technologies have decreased rapidly in recent years. The costs of PV electricity have dropped to less than 0.03 EUR/kWh, making it the technology with the lowest electricity generation costs. To understand what EU renewable electricity is projected to look like in the future, our analysis is based on scenarios that are an essential part of European Commission impact assessments. These scenarios assume that the EU reached its greenhouse gas reduction targets as stated in the 2030 energy and climate strategy and as committed to in the COP21 following a cost-optimal approach. To reach the 30 % overall renewable energy target, in 2030 the EU needs to meet 54 % of its gross electricity generation needs using renewable technologies. It also needs to increase its current final consumption of renewable energy and installed capacity, by 68 % and 75 %, respectively. Towards the 2030 target the PRIMES EUCO projections rely mostly in the deployment of solar technology. Its share in final renewable electricity capacity is projected to reach at least 36%. The PRIMES climate mitigation scenarios (EUCO scenarios) project that wind will be the second biggest source of gross electricity generation in the EU in 2030, accounting for 24 % of gross electricity generation and 45 % of final renewable electricity.
JRC.C.2-Energy Efficiency and Renewables