The impact of large-scale wind power deployment on the future power generation mix

The binding 20% target for the share of renewables in final energy demand might require up to 35% of the electricity originating from renewable energy sources (RES-E). Wind power is expected to contribute strongly to RES-E deployment. However, wind power output is characterized by a variable profile which is only controllable to a limited extend. When this profile is withdrawn from the original load level, the net load profile is found. This net demand level needs to be covered by conventional power generation in economically optimal way. The load duration methodology determines the optimal number of operating hours of different technologies based on relative cost levels. This methodology can be used as a first approach to find the optimal generation mix. However, the deployment of a larger share of wind power increases variability of the net load profile. The inclusion of ramp limits allows the determination of an optimal generation mix taking variability and technical restrictions in a realistic way into account. Demand and wind power installation projections are used for three regions, illustrating changes in the optimal generation mix. ispartof: IAEE location:Vienna Austria date:8 Sep - 10 Sep 2009 status: published