A systematic assessment of bioenergy representation in the UK Markal Model : insights on the formulation of bioenergy scenarios

Energy modelling that quantifies the costs and benefits of alternative energy strategies and implementation options has long held a central role in energy policy. Among others, MARKAL is a technology focused dynamic cost optimisation model, which contributed to numerous and wide-ranging energy policy studies, as well as to academic analysis of key energy policy and technology diffusion studies. This paper aims to review the representation of bioenergy chains in the current UK-MARKAL model up to 2050, and to propose some key improvements to be undertaken. The review is undertaken module by module, following the structure of the model, and the findings are listed with possible improvements suggested for bioenergy pathways.The improvements proposed to the UK-MARKAL model are wide-ranging, in line with the complexity of more credible bioenergy systems. They notably cover aspects such as: infrastructure costs and logistics, information asymmetry, socioeconomic factors, household economics, learning curves, imported biomass externalities, biomass supply dynamics (costs vs quantity), and representation of the demand side appropriate to policy analysis. Therefore, the proposed focus on a small number of key changes to the representation of bioenergy chains / pathways allows for the generation of preliminary insights on the scenarios to be investigated and the additional updates needed.