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The role of human influence on climate in recent UK winter floods and their impacts
- Source :
- Nature Climate Change.
- Publication Year :
- 2016
-
Abstract
- A succession of storms reaching southern England in the winter of 2013/2014 caused severe floods and £451 million insured losses. In a large ensemble of climate model simulations, we find that, as well as increasing the amount of moisture the atmosphere can hold, anthropogenic warming caused a small but significant increase in the number of January days with westerly flow, both of which increased extreme precipitation. Hydrological modelling indicates this increased extreme 30-day-average Thames river flows, and slightly increased daily peak flows, consistent with the understanding of the catchment’s sensitivity to longer-duration precipitation and changes in the role of snowmelt. Consequently, flood risk mapping shows a small increase in properties in the Thames catchment potentially at risk of riverine flooding, with a substantial range of uncertainty, demonstrating the importance of explicit modelling of impacts and relatively subtle changes in weather-related risks when quantifying present-day effects of human influence on climate.
Details
- ISSN :
- 1758678X
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Nature Climate Change
- Accession number :
- edsair.od......1064..393228eaf0d48b252f11957a21e2c88f