Model simulations to aid the Combi Terminal Investigation

The Government has given Banverket (the Swedish Rail Administration) the task of suggesting a strategic network for combi terminals (using rail and another mode). Banverket has in turn given VTI the task of carrying out model simulations to aid the Combi Terminal Investigation. The investigation has defined strategic networks (Network I, II, III) with four, seven and ten terminals as possible scenarios. In each of the networks the transfer costs in the combi terminals are assumed to decrease by 15 and by 30 percent. We calculate with the help of the Swedish national freight model SAMGODS how modal-split between lorry, wagonload rail and combined transport are affected and how transport volumes differ in the scenarios with adjusted transfer costs. The freight owners, choice of transport solution is assumed to use the minimal generalised costs. We calculate that transport work by combined rail in Sweden increases by 20 to 26 percent with a 30 percent cost decrease is assumed. Redistribution is calculated to mainly shift from wagonload to combined transport. The actual size of the redistribution is however difficult to be sure of due to uncertainties in the input cost data. Road transport is calculated to reduce to a lesser amount. We calculate significant redistribution from road to combined rail when testing a kilometer tax for lorries.