Dynamic Modelling of Ageing and Health: The Dynopta Microsimulation Model

This paper describes the design of a dynamic microsimulation model being built as part of the DYNOPTA (Dynamic Analyses to Optimize Ageing) Project. The model aims to establish a demographic modelling infrastructure to simulate the health outcomes of Australia's baby boomer and aged cohorts and to examine the impacts of possible social and medical interventions to compress morbidity and optimise ageing in Australia over the next 30 years. The DYNOPTA microsimulation model is founded on a pooled dataset which combines data from nine Australian Longitudinal Studies of Ageing. The pooled dataset is being used to inform the base file; identify key incidence and prevalence rates; examine risk and protective factors for health outcomes; and estimate disease pathways and transition rates. The modelling focuses on four conditions that contribute to burden of disease and quality of life in the aged - cognitive decline and dementia, sensory impairment, impairment in mobility, and depression. The microsimulation modelling is underpinned by a life course approach to development and ageing that recognises interdependencies among demographic, social, economic and health factors. The base population comprises individuals aged 45 years and over in 1996. The number of individuals in various states of disability, and the length of time spent in these states prior to death, will be modelled over the 30-year simulation period. Once built, the model will provide a new and innovative means of directly informing health promotion policy on the aged in Australia