Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Italy, 1861-2003

This paper examines the relationship between economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in Italy for the period 1861-2003. Using cointegration, rolling regression and error correction modeling techniques, we find that growth and carbon dioxide emissions are strongly interrelated, and elasticity of pollutant emissions with respect to income has been decreasing over time. For the period 1960-2003 EKC estimates provide evidence for the existence of a reasonable "turning point". However, given the heavy dependence of Italian economy upon fossil fuels, meeting the emissions targets in the accomplishing of the Kyoto Protocol is a very challenging task.