Electricy production and Spanish growth. A long term perspective

El sector electrico ha sido clave en el proceso de industrializacion. De ahi que analizar la relacion que guardan produccion electrica y crecimiento constituya un interesante campo de investigacion, resaltado en la historiografia pero con resultados empiricos contradictorios. En este trabajo, utilizando un modelo de cointegracion para series temporales cortas, se examina la relacion causal entre la produccion electrica y el PIB de Espana durante el periodo 1945- 2011 y se concluye que la produccion electrica impulso el crecimiento del PIB y no al reves. Al desagregar por fuentes de generacion, se infiere que la electricidad obtenida a partir de fuentes renovables y la energia nuclear indujeron el crecimiento economico; en cambio, este impelio la produccion de las centrales termoelectricas convencionales. En consecuencia, las politicas que impulsen tanto las energias renovables como la nuclear pueden elevar el crecimiento economico espanol.
The electricity sector has been key in the industrialization process. Hence, the analysis of the relationship between electricity production and growth becomes an interesting field of research, highlighted in the historiography but with contradictory empirical results. In this paper, using a cointegration model for short time series, we examine the causal relationship between electricity and the Spanish GDP during the period 1945-2011 and we conclude that electricity production boosted GDP growth and not the other way round. Disaggregating by sources of generation, it is concluded that both the electricity obtained from renewable sources and nuclear power led to economic growth; this economic growth, however, led to the production of electricity in conventional power plants. Consequently, policies that promote renewable or nuclear power can raise Spanish economic growth.