Abnormal TP53 Predicts Risk of Progression in Patients With Barrett's Esophagus Regardless of a Diagnosis of Dysplasia

Background and aimsBarrett's esophagus (BE) is the precursor to esophageal adenocarcinoma. A major challenge is identifying the small group with BE who will progress to advanced disease from the many who will not. Assessment of p53 status has promise as a predictive biomarker, but analytic limitations and lack of validation have precluded its use. The aim of this study was to develop a robust criteria for grading abnormal immunohistochemical (IHC) expression of p53 and to test its utility as a biomarker for progression in BE.MethodsCriteria for abnormal IHC of p53 were developed in BE biopsies and validated with sequencing to assess TP53 mutations. The utility of p53 IHC as a biomarker for progression of BE was tested retrospectively in 561 patients with BE with or without known progression. The findings were prospectively validated in a clinical practice setting in 1487 patients with BE.ResultsAbnormal p53 IHC highly correlated with TP53 mutation status (90.6% agreement) and was strongly associated with neoplastic progression in the retrospective cohorts, regardless of histologic diagnosis (P < .001). In the retrospective cohort, abnormal p53 was associated with a hazard ratio of 5.03 (95% confidence interval, 3.88-6.5) and a hazard ratio of 5.27 (95% confidence interval, 3.93-7.07) for patients with exclusively nondysplastic disease before progression. In the prospective validation cohort,p53 IHC predicted progression among nondysplastic BE,indefinite for dysplasia, and low-grade dysplasia (P&nbsp