Afvalverwijdering 1990 - 2015. Achtergronddocument bij de Nationale Milieuverkenning 3

The first six chapters of this document are directly related to chapter 4.5 of the National Environmental Outlook 3. They contain the data and assumptions leading to the conclusions drawn in the latter document. Some recent information has been added. The background document deals first of all with the quantity and disposal method of the different waste categories in the year 1990. Chapter 3 contains prognoses for the years 2000, 2010 and 2015 as a result of all kinds of autonomous developments. In chapter 4 and 5 the effect of waste policy, as laid down in measures which have already been ratified and passed by the Lower House of Parliament, as well as agreements with trade and industry, is evaluated. Measures or agreements that are expected to be presented to the Lower House of Parliament before 1 January 1995 or to be concluded by parties by that time, are also evaluated. The aim is to maximize prevention and recycling and to minimize the quantity of waste that has to be incinerated or landfilled. As far as waste prevention is concerned, the aim is for 10% of potential waste production in 2000 to be prevented. Since a sharp distinction between reduction trends in the material intensity of the economy and prevention efforts cannot always be made, the prevention target is difficult to evaluate. The government's aim is for 66% of the waste produced in 2000 to be recycled. This target can probably be achieved. According to current knowledge it is uncertain wether there will be a sufficient market for all potential secondary raw materials in the year 2000. Problems can be expected, for example, with waste paper, plastics, compost of kitchen and garden waste and construction and demolition waste. The quantity of waste incinerated or landfilled has been falling for some time, especially since kitchen and garden waste and construction and demolition waste are increasingly being recycled. Owing to the increasing effort in the field of prevention and recycling, the quantity of waste to be incinerated or landfilled will fall by about 35% by the year 2000. An incineration capacity of no more than 6 million tonnes can be achieved by 2000. The landfill target of 5 million tonnes for the year 2000 is expected to be exceeded by 1 or 2 million tonnes. It will exceed more if no extra markets are created for marketing of 2-3 million tonnes of potential secondary materials and that the planned incineration capacity is achieved. It is assumed that phosphoric acid gypsum from the chemical fertilizer industry (about 2 million tonnes) will still be discharged in 2000, because there are not enough technically feasible and economically viable ways of recycling it. It is expected that waste production will stabilize after 2000 or will continue to rise slightly each year and that an incineration and landfill capacity comparable to that in 2000 will be needed. Chapter 6 presents the results per target group and the costs. Chapter 7 discusses the results of additional measures as laid down in the National Environmental Policy Plan 2. Chapter 8 contains some capita selecta which are important in future documents.