Scenario analysis of generic feeders to assess the adequacy of the LV-grid in the coming decades

The energy transition will bring large changes to residential load profiles. In order to assess whether the current low voltage (LV)-grids are capable of handling these changes, future scenario analysis must be used to assess the grid adequacy. To this end, an approach is proposed, incorporating scenario-based household load modelling, LV-feeder clustering and probabilistic load flow calculations. All combinations of independent scenarios on the drivers of change in the residential load have been assessed with probabilistic load flow calculations . Generic feeders are chosen, which are representative for the LV-grid of a Dutch distribution network operator. The scenario assessment shows the chances of overloading and/or exceeding of the voltage limits for the LV-feeders over different time horizons and scenarios. The approach can also be used to assess the main scenario drivers and grid parameters responsible for changes in the future adequacy of the LV-grid.