Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Values and Topography-Driven Effects Based on Land Use Change: A Case Study of the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area

The Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) is rich in natural and marine resources, and it is scientifically valuable to study the evolution patterns and driving mechanisms of the ecosystem service values (ESVs) of the GBA for the governance and conservation of its ecosystems. Based on the land use changes in the GBA from 2000 to 2020, the ESVs in the GBA were measured at the grid scale, and the Markov model was used to predict the ESVs in 2030; the calculated results were used to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the ESVs during the 30-year period, while the driving role of the topographic factors on the ESVs is revealed through the construction of the geographically weighted regression model (GWR). The results show the following: (1) During the 20-year period, the area of arable land and water in the GBA fluctuated greatly, with the area decreasing year by year and shifting mainly into construction land; in terms of shifting the center of gravity of the land, and the center of gravity of the grassland and unused land shifted the greatest distance due to the expansion of construction land, with the center of gravity shifting westward as a whole. (2) The ecosystem services (ESs) in the GBA show obvious aggregation in the spatial distribution, with the total ESVs decreasing year by year. Among them, the areas with an increasing total value are mainly located in the cities of Zhaoqing and Huizhou in the GBA, accounting for 27%, and the areas with a decreasing total value year by year are mainly located in the dense urban areas in the central part of the GBA, accounting for 35%, and the area is increasing, indicating that the habitat quality is deteriorating, and the model prediction shows that the value of ecosystem services in 2030 have a decreasing trend under the development of the natural state. (3) Topographic factors have a significant influence on the ESVs, and in terms of spatial distribution, the areas with the strongest effect are distributed in the northwestern and northeastern parts of the GBA, and the main uses for the land are wood land, arable land, water and the area of the water–land intersection near the sea.