Analysis of Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of the Water Footprint in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2020

Xinjiang is home to one of the most serious resource-based water shortages, and at the same time, it is an important main production area of grain, cotton, and high-quality fruits and vegetables in China, placing a heavy burden on water resources. Based on this, this paper determines the basic condition of water resources in regions of Xinjiang using the water footprint method. It then identifies the drivers of water footprint changes using the population scale effect, policy support effect, investment–output effect, economic structure effect, water use efficiency effect, and water use structure effect via the LMDI decomposition model. Finally, this paper illustrates the trajectory of the regional water footprint through individual stochastic convergence. This study found the following: (1) The water footprint of Xinjiang showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the total water footprint varied significantly between regions. From a compositional standpoint, most regions were dominated by the agricultural water footprint, while spatially, the regional water footprint had a high distribution trend in the south and a low distribution in the north. (2) The driving effects of the water footprint, policy support, population scale, and water use structure were incremental, while the effects of water use efficiency, economic structure, and investment output were decremental. (3) Most regions in Xinjiang showed individual stochastic convergence trends, indicating that regions converged to their respective compensating difference equilibrium levels. In this regard, it is necessary to strengthen R&D and the promotion of water use technology, further optimize the industrial structure, and leverage the positive effect of government investment to alleviate the regional water constraint dilemma and promote high-quality regional economic development.