Shallow Landslide Modeling for Heavy Rainfall Events

本稿は，豪雨時を対象とした表層斜面崩壊のモデリングについて示したものである。斜面の安定性は土層内の水分の消長に大きく依存するため、これを精度よく表現し得るリチャーズ式を導入している。降雨実験により、モデルの適用性を検討した後、無限長斜面を仮定した3層からなる斜面の安定性を、リチャーズ式によって評価される土壌水分の消長を考慮して検討している。この斜面安定性の解析法を木津川上流域のタコラ谷に適用し、実際の豪雨時斜面崩壊箇所との比較検討により、本モデルの適用性が確認された。さらに、透水係数、土層厚、安息角、土粒子密度など、モデル中のパラメータが崩壊発生個数に与える影響について感度分析を行い、斜面安定解析において重要なパラメータを特定している。
A landslide simulation model based on the Richards equation for the ground water flow and with assumptions of soil matrixes comprising three horizontal layers was prepared to simulate rainfall induced shallow landslides. The model is capable to explicitly calculate the change in pore pressure in response to transient rainfall. Infinite slope failure was assumed for the slope stability module. The numerical solution of the unsteady pore-water pressure was experimentally verified by the physical experiment. The model was used to reproduce the landslides occurred in 1973/10/26 at the Takora basin located upstream of Kizu river basin. Comparison of the result of transient rainfall model and steady state model was done by applying both models to simulate the landslide produced by the same rainfall. Performance of the transient response model is better compared to steady state model as the latter highly over-predicted the instability. Sensitivity analyses of some of the model parameter were also done which indicates that depth of the layers, soil angle of repose and soil density have great influence on the stability of the soil domain. Correct representation of their values and their proper spatial distribution are vital to enhance the performance of the model output.