Future wood supply from European forests; implications for the pulp and paper industry

The aim of this study is to provide quantitative insight into future actual supply of wood as a raw material (between 2005 and 2060) from European forests (36 countries). To do so, the degree to which apparent demand can be met is quantified with a forest resource model (resulting in the actual supply). This actual supply is tested for two sets of management regimes: ‘projection of historical management’ and ‘new management trends’. The results indicate that if new trends in forest management and supply behaviour continue to develop as in the recent past, an additional theoretical shortfall of 195 million m3 roundwood per year can be expected by 2060 in 36 European countries. The European part of Russia is not able to reduce the shortfall, because of its own demand developing. These shortfalls have to be understood as theoretical shortfalls; they visualise what may happen if no market adaptations occur in the future. Under this projected shortfall, the total growing stock in European forests (incl. European part of Russia) still increases from 51 billion m3 in 2005 to 62 billion m3 in 2060