The spatiotemporal dynamic and spatial spillover effect of agricultural green technological progress in China

The progress of agricultural green technology is an important means and fundamental way to achieve high-quality development of agriculture. The current study takes the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2018 and uses the Epsilon Based Measure-Global Malmquist-Luenberger (EBM-GML) model to measure China’s agricultural green technological progress (AGTP) and discusses its dynamic evolution characteristics in the spatiotemporal dimensions. Finally, we analyze the spatial spillover effects of AGTP by the spatial Dubin model. The results show that China’s AGTP showed a trend of first rising and then falling, and the average value is 1.0525. AGTP has obvious regional unbalanced development, and the regional differences are expanding. It shows that AGTP between adjacent areas is closely linked. The Moran’s I index shows that AGTP has a significant positive spatial correlation. The local Moran’s I index shows that AGTP is concentrated in Northwest, Northeast, and North China, and green technological is degraded in East and South China. From the spatial spillover effects of AGTP, the level of agricultural economic development, real GDP per capita, and urbanization have significantly promoted AGTP in the local and neighboring areas, while the agricultural internal structure and the level of labor inhibit AGTP in the local and neighboring areas. In addition, the administrative environmental policy (ENVP) and the economic environmental policy (ECOP) have negative impacts in neighboring areas, while the policy has negative spillover effects and positive spillover effects in the local area, respectively. Therefore, we should adhere to the concept of green development, pay attention to the regional exchange of green technology, concentrate policies on low-low concentration areas, and increase the follow-up tracking and supervision mechanism of the policy design and implementation process. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-021-18424-z.