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Model parameters and outbreak control for SARS
- Source :
- Emerging Infectious Diseases, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 7, Pp 1258-1263 (2004)
- Publication Year :
- 2004
-
Abstract
- Tool for estimating basic reproductive number for the SARS outbreak suggests need for multiple methods of control.<br />Control of the 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak was based on rapid diagnosis coupled with effective patient isolation. We used uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the basic reproductive number R0 to assess the role that model parameters play in outbreak control. The transmission rate and isolation effectiveness have the largest fractional effect on R0. We estimated the distribution of the reproductive number R0 under perfect isolation conditions. The distribution lies in the interquartile range 0.19–1.08, with a median of 0.49. Even though the median of R0 is 1, even with perfect isolation. This implies the need to simultaneously apply more than one method of control.
- Subjects :
- Microbiology (medical)
Epidemiology
diagnosis
Transmission rate
lcsh:Medicine
Model parameters
Biology
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
Models, Biological
lcsh:Infectious and parasitic diseases
Disease Outbreaks
Interquartile range
Statistics
Humans
lcsh:RC109-216
skin and connective tissue diseases
uncertainty
Patient isolation
SARS
Research
lcsh:R
fungi
Outbreak
sensitivity
body regions
Infectious Diseases
reproductive number
Immunology
Communicable Disease Control
Outbreak control
Basic reproduction number
isolation
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 10806040
- Volume :
- 10
- Issue :
- 7
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Emerging infectious diseases
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....fead9c59df8c23344927927cb4def532