Biological markers that predict clinical recurrence in ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast

The optimal management of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is controversial, due in part to our poor understanding of its natural history. We undertook to identify subgroups of DCIS based on the expression of biomarkers, which were related to the likelihood of clinical recurrence. Biomarker expression of a total of 95 DCIS lesions in a nested case–control study within a population-based cohort with up to 135 months follow-up data (median 101 months) was analysed using immunohistochemistry. ERBB2-positivity and bcl-2-, oestrogen receptor (ER)- and progesterone receptor (PR)-negativity were individually associated with the risk of clinical recurrence. The predictive value of these biomarkers was independent of cytonuclear grade. ERBB2, bcl-2, ER and PR expression were conserved in the recurrent lesions, including subsequent invasive cancers. p21-positive DCIS was also associated with clinical recurrence, independently of the associations with ERBB2/bcl-2/ER/PR expression. These data identify clinically and biologically relevant subcategories of DCIS lesions, an essential basis for improving management.