Prognostic factors in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukaemia: development of a model to predict survival

Summary With an increasing number of elderly patients presenting with acute myeloid leukaemia and with recent reports of worthwhile remission rates and survival times following treatment with intensive chemotherapy, there is a pressing need to identify criteria to assist in the selection of appropriate therapy for elderly patients. We have performed multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis of data prospectively collected during the treatment of 104 patients aged 60 and over treated in a multi-centre study with a standardized regimen of mitozantrone and cytosine arabinoside for induction and consolidation. Four readily available parameters, namely urea, performance status, peripheral blood blast count and presence of hepatomegaly, were identified from which a prognostic model to predict survival has been developed. The model was found to be accurate in predicting survival in the cohort of patients from which it was developed, but needs to be validated in a further test population studied prospectively. Its simplicity suggests that it may be particularly useful in the selection of elderly patients with AML most likely to benefit from intensive chemotherapy.