The economic research of arsenic trioxide for the treatment of newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia in China

Background The objective of this study was to conduct the first systematic evaluation of the long-term economic impact of arsenic trioxide (ATO) plus all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) for the treatment of patients with newly diagnosed acute promyelocytic leukemia (APL) from the perspective of the Chinese health care system. Methods On the basis of clinical data from a randomized phase 3 trial, a time-dependent Markov model with 4 health states (complete remission, relapse or treatment failure, post-treatment failure, and death) was used to evaluate the incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained from the ATO plus ATRA regimen compared with the ATRA plus chemotherapy (CT) regimen over a 30-year period. All costs were adjusted to 2018 levels based on the Chinese Consumer Price Index. Both costs and health outcomes were discounted by 3% annually. One-way sensitivity analysis and probability sensitivity analysis were performed. Results Compared with the ATRA plus CT strategy, the ATO plus ATRA strategy was associated with 1.38 additional QALYs gained and $392.05 (estimated in 2018 US dollars) in incremental costs per patient over 30 years. Consequently, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $284.02 per QALY gained, which was far below the Chinese willingness-to-pay threshold of $29,306 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated the robustness of these results. Conclusions From the perspective of the Chinese health care system, the ATO plus ATRA strategy is cost-effective for patients with newly diagnosed APL compared with the ATRA plus CT strategy. Therefore, the authors strongly suggest that China's health authorities choose the former strategy for these patients, whether for the elderly or for young people.