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Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry

Authors :
Paul Sundberg
Mary Thurn
Chong Wang
Jerry Torrison
Paulo Lages
Bret Crim
Poonam Dubey
Douglas Marthaler
Jamie Henningson
Daniel Linhares
Jane Christopher-Hennings
Giovani Trevisan
David Muscatello
Rodger Main
Leticia Linhares
Gregg Hanzlicek
Eric R. Burrough
Eric Herrman
Kent Schwartz
Jon Greseth
Cesar Corzo
Ram K. Raghavan
Travis Clement
Source :
J Vet Diagn Invest
Publication Year :
2020
Publisher :
SAGE Publications, 2020.

Abstract

We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year’s weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015–2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14–25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14–25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018.

Details

ISSN :
19434936 and 10406387
Volume :
32
Database :
OpenAIRE
Journal :
Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation
Accession number :
edsair.doi.dedup.....f95429f30cf85a102f92ab7aea5be6c9