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Prediction of seasonal patterns of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus RNA detection in the U.S. swine industry
- Source :
- J Vet Diagn Invest
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- SAGE Publications, 2020.
-
Abstract
- We developed a model to predict the cyclic pattern of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) RNA detection by reverse-transcription real-time PCR (RT-rtPCR) from 4 major swine-centric veterinary diagnostic laboratories (VDLs) in the United States and to use historical data to forecast the upcoming year’s weekly percentage of positive submissions and issue outbreak signals when the pattern of detection was not as expected. Standardized submission data and test results were used. Historical data (2015–2017) composed of the weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions were used to fit a cyclic robust regression model. The findings were used to forecast the expected weekly percentage of PCR-positive submissions, with a 95% confidence interval (CI), for 2018. During 2018, the proportion of PRRSV-positive submissions crossed 95% CI boundaries at week 2, 14–25, and 48. The relatively higher detection on week 2 and 48 were mostly from submissions containing samples from wean-to-market pigs, and for week 14–25 originated mostly from samples from adult/sow farms. There was a recurring yearly pattern of detection, wherein an increased proportion of PRRSV RNA detection in submissions originating from wean-to-finish farms was followed by increased detection in samples from adult/sow farms. Results from the model described herein confirm the seasonal cyclic pattern of PRRSV detection using test results consolidated from 4 VDLs. Wave crests occurred consistently during winter, and wave troughs occurred consistently during the summer months. Our model was able to correctly identify statistically significant outbreak signals in PRRSV RNA detection at 3 instances during 2018.
- Subjects :
- 0303 health sciences
Veterinary medicine
General Veterinary
Swine
040301 veterinary sciences
animal diseases
Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome
Outbreak
RNA
04 agricultural and veterinary sciences
Biology
Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus
biology.organism_classification
Polymerase Chain Reaction
United States
Confidence interval
Disease Outbreaks
0403 veterinary science
03 medical and health sciences
Animals
RNA, Viral
Porcine respiratory and reproductive syndrome virus
Seasons
Full Scientific Reports
030304 developmental biology
Subjects
Details
- ISSN :
- 19434936 and 10406387
- Volume :
- 32
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....f95429f30cf85a102f92ab7aea5be6c9