Practical risk score for 5‐, 10‐, and 20‐year prediction of dementia in elderly persons: Framingham Heart Study

Introduction With a rapidly aging population, general practitioners are confronting the challenge of how to determine those who are at greatest risk for dementia and potentially need more specialized follow-up to mitigate symptoms early in its course. We created a practical dementia risk score and provided individualized estimates of future dementia risk. Methods Using the Framingham Heart Study data, we built our prediction model using Cox proportional hazard models and developed a point system for the risk score and risk estimates. Results The score system used total points ranging from −1 to 31 and stratifies individuals into different levels of risk. We estimated 5-, 10-, and 20-year dementia risk prediction and incorporated these into the points system. Discussion This risk score system provides a practical tool because all included predictors are easy to assess by practitioners. It can be used to estimate future probabilities of dementia for individuals.