Uncertainty analysis of climate change potential assessments of five building energy renovation measures in Sweden

Abstract The aim of this study is to assess the impact of the uncertainties of life cycle inventory (LCI) data for energy use and materials in life cycle assessments of standard energy renovation measures carried out in multi-family buildings in Sweden. Five energy renovation measures were assessed with regard to their climate change potential. Modules A1–A3 and module B6 were included in the assessment and the functional unit, 1 m2 heated floor area of a renovated building fulfilling the Swedish building regulations and with a calculation period of 20 years, was used. The uncertainty of LCI data for materials and energy were assessed using the Ecoinvent data quality system. This study shows that with two different energy mixes, all renovation measures result in a decrease in the climate change potential. The five renovation measures used in the simulations, with and without consideration to uncertainties, show a lower climate change potential when carried out than when not carried out. It is also shown in this study that the inclusion of the uncertainties of the input data did not have any impact on the overall decisions to renovate or not to renovate. However, this should not be regarded as a general conclusion. If a renovation measure were to have a higher level of material use, or if the “Future energy mix” were to be improved, uncertainty considerations could become much more important from a climate change perspective. Article Highlights All assessed energy renovation measures show a decrease in their climate change potential when carried out. The energy renovation measures with the largest decreases of climate change potential are also the measures with largest energy saving potential. When uncertainties are considered, there are no overlaps in the results when carrying out or not carrying out a renovation measure.