Australasian ACPGBI risk prediction model for 30-day mortality after colorectal cancer surgery

Background Postoperative mortality after colorectal cancer surgery varies across hospitals and countries. The aim of this study was to test the Association of Coloproctologists of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) models as predictors of 30‐day mortality in an Australian cohort. Methods Data from patients who underwent surgery in six hospitals between 1996 and 2015 (CRC data set) were reviewed to test ACPGBI models, and patients from 79 hospitals in the Bi‐National Colorectal Cancer Audit between 2007 and 2016 (BCCA data set) were analysed to validate model performance. Recalibrated models based on ACPGBI risk models were developed, tested and validated on a data set of Australasian patients. Results Of 18 752 patients observed during the study, 6727 (CRC data set) and 3814 (BCCA data set) were analysed. The 30‐day mortality rate was 1·1 and 3·5 per cent in the CRC and BCCA data sets respectively. Both the original and revised ACPGBI models overestimated 30‐day mortality for the CRC data set (observed to expected (O/E) ratio 0·17 and 0·21 respectively). Their ability to correctly predict mortality risk was poor (P
The aim was to test the Association of Coloproctologists of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI) original (2003) and revised (2010) models as predictors of 30‐day mortality in an Australian patient cohort, and then recalibrate these models using data from Australian patients. This study included 10 541 patients treated over a 20‐year interval in Australia and New Zealand. The ACPGBI models overestimated 30‐day mortality, and so both ACPGBI models should be used with caution in Australia. Mortality risk prediction after colorectal surgery