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Simulation of Spatiotemporal Land Use Changes for Integrated Model of Socioeconomic and Ecological Processes in China
- Source :
- Sustainability, Volume 11, Issue 13, Sustainability, Vol 11, Iss 13, p 3627 (2019)
- Publication Year :
- 2019
- Publisher :
- Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute, 2019.
-
Abstract
- Land use/land cover changes (LULCC) have been affected by ecological processes as well as socioeconomic and human activities, resulting in several environmental problems. The study of the human&ndash<br />environment system combined with land use/land cover dynamics has received considerable attention in recent decades. We aimed to provide an integrated model that couples land use, socioeconomic influences, and ecosystem processes to explore the future dynamics of land use under two scenarios in China. Under Scenario A, the yield of grain continues to increase, and under Scenario B, the yield of grain remains constant. This study created a LULCC model by integrating a simple global socioeconomic model, a Terrestrial ecosystem simulator (TESim), and a land use allocation model. The results were analyzed by comparing spatiotemporal differences under predicted land use conditions in the two alternative scenarios. The simulation results showed patterns that varied between the two scenarios. In Scenario A, grassland will expand in the future and a large reduction in cropland will be observed. In Scenario B, the augmented expansion of cropland and a drastic shrinkage of forest area will be the main land use conversion features. Scenario A is more promising because more land is preserved for ecological restoration and urbanization, which is in line with China&rsquo<br />s Grain for Green Program. Economic development should be based on ecological protection. The results are expected to add insight to sustainable land use development and regional natural resource management in China.
- Subjects :
- land use change model
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences
Geography, Planning and Development
lcsh:TJ807-830
lcsh:Renewable energy sources
Land cover
010501 environmental sciences
Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
01 natural sciences
socioeconomic influence
Urbanization
Ecosystem
Natural resource management
Restoration ecology
lcsh:Environmental sciences
ecosystem processes
0105 earth and related environmental sciences
lcsh:GE1-350
Land use
Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Ecology
lcsh:Environmental effects of industries and plants
scenario simulation
sustainability
lcsh:TD194-195
Sustainability
Environmental science
Terrestrial ecosystem
sense organs
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 20711050
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Journal :
- Sustainability
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....f6d0efd4de021bc098c2f62477a242e4
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133627