Dynamic Risk Factors in Adult Men Who Committed Sexual Offenses: Replication and Comparison of Networks Found in Two Independent Samples

Objective: Risk of sexual reoffending of adult men who committed sexual offenses can be understood as involving a network of causally connected dynamic risk factors. This study examined to what degree findings from previous network analyses, estimated using data from the Dynamic Supervision Project (N = 803; van den Berg et al., 2020), could be replicated. Method: Networks produced with data from the provincial corrections system of British Columbia (N = 4,511) were compared with those found in the original sample, using the Network Comparison Test (van Borkulo et al., 2019) and by correlating both the adjacency matrices of the networks and the rank of the node’s strength centrality across networks. Results: Networks without recidivism, with sexual recidivism, and with violent recidivism (including sexual contact) statistically significant differ in network structure, but not in global strength. Both the adjacency matrices of the networks as well as the rank of the node’s strength centrality across networks were highly correlated. Dynamic risk factors general social rejection/loneliness, lack of concern for others, poor cognitive problem-solving, and impulsive acts showed high-strength centralities. Besides, all networks contained distinct communities of risk factors related to sexual self-regulation, emotionally intimate relationships, antisocial traits, and self-management. Conclusions: We successfully replicated most findings of our original study. Dynamic risk factors concerning social rejection/loneliness, cognitive problem-solving skills, impulsive behavior, and callousness appear to have a relatively strong role in the risk of sexual reoffending. Risk management and treatment strategies to reduce recidivism would benefit from a stronger focus on these dynamic risk factors.