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Rt2: computing and visualising COVID-19 epidemics temporal reproduction number
- Publication Year :
- 2020
- Publisher :
- HAL CCSD, 2020.
-
Abstract
- Analysing the spread of COVID-19 epidemics in a timely manner is essential for public health authorities. However, raw numbers may be misleading because of spatial and temporal variations. We introduce Rt2, an R-program with a shiny interface, which uses incidence data, i.e. number of new cases per day, to compute variations in the temporal reproduction number (R t), which corresponds to the average number of secondary infections caused by an infected person. This number is computed with the R0 package, which better captures past variations, and the EpiEstim package, which provides a more accurate estimate of current values. R t can be computed in different countries using either the daily number of new cases or of deaths. For France, these numbers can also be computed at the regional and departmental level using also daily numbers of hospital and ICU admissions. Finally, in addition to R t , we represent the incidence using a one-week sliding window to buffer daily variations. Overall, Rt2 provides an accurate and timely overview of the state and speed of spread of COVID-19 epidemics at different scales, using different metrics. Context Monitoring the state and speed of spread of COVID-19 epidemics at the national and regional levels is crucial to implement non-pharmaceutical interventions (Flaxman et al., 2020). Every day, public health agencies communicate key figures to monitor the epidemic, especially incidences, which correspond to the number of new cases detected. These incidences are typically related to four variables, which are PCR-based detection, deaths, hospitalisations, and ICU admissions. The statistical analysis of time variations in these time series can inform us about epidemiological dynamics.
- Subjects :
- medicine.medical_specialty
Context monitoring
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
Reproduction (economics)
Secondary infection
[SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy
03 medical and health sciences
0302 clinical medicine
[SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems
Sliding window protocol
Statistics
medicine
030212 general & internal medicine
030304 developmental biology
[SDV.EE.SANT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Health
0303 health sciences
[SDV.GEN.GPO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Genetics/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE]
Public health
Incidence (epidemiology)
[SDV.BID.EVO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE]
[INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation
[SDV.BIBS]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM]
3. Good health
Geography
[SDV.MP.VIR]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology
[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie
Time variations
[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
[SDV.EE.IEO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- OpenAIRE
- Accession number :
- edsair.doi.dedup.....f25c0fb4d2e92f29c691b3213abc227b