Chest high-resolution computed tomography is associated to short-time progression to severe disease in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia

Objective In patients with mild COVID-19 pneumonia, chest high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) is advised when risk factors for severe disease (i.e., age > 65 years and/or comorbidities) are present, and can influence management strategy. The objective was to assess whether HRCT is associated to short-time development of severe disease in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods Seventy-seven consecutive patients (mean age, 64 ± 15 years) with mild COVID-19 pneumonia (no or mild respiratory failure) that underwent HRCT were retrospectively identified. Fifty-two on 77 patients had reported risk factors for severe disease. A chest-imaging devoted radiologist recorded, on a per-examination basis, the following HRCT features: ground-glass opacity, crazy-paving pattern, consolidation, organizing pneumonia (OP) pattern, mosaic attenuation, and nodules. The extent of each feature (total feature score, TFS) was semi-quantitatively assessed. Total lung involvement (TLI) was defined as the sum of all TFSs. The study outcome was defined as the occurrence of severe disease (moderate-to-severe respiratory failure) within 15 days from HRCT. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess if age, comorbidities, and HRCT features were associated to severe disease. Results On univariable analysis, severe disease was significantly associated with age > 59 years (29/47 patients, 61.7%) (p = 0.013), and not significantly associated with having comorbidities (22/44 patients, 50.0%). On multivariable analysis, TLI >15 and OP pattern >5 were independently associated to severe disease, with odds ratio of 8.380 (p = 0.003), and of 4.685 (p = 0.035), respectively. Conclusion Short-time onset of severe COVID-19 was associated to TLI >15 and OP pattern score > 5. Severe disease was not associated to comorbidities.
Highlights • Chest computed tomography predicts progression to severe COVID-19 pneumonia • Chest computed tomography predicts clinical evolution in patients at lower risk • Extensive lung involvement and organizing pneumonia pattern predict severe disease