Spatial-Temporal Divergence and Driving Mechanisms of Urban-Rural Sustainable Development: An Empirical Study Based on Provincial Panel Data in China

China’s long-standing urban-rural dichotomy has led to a widening gap between urban and rural areas, posing a huge challenge to the sustainable development of Chinese society. This paper adopted the subjective-objective weighting method, coupled coordination degree model, and geographically weighted regression model to conduct urban-rural sustainable development research on 31 provincial administrative regions in China and discussed their spatial-temporal divergence and driving mechanisms during 2007–2018. The results showed that (1) the quality of both rural revitalization and new urbanization improved during the study period, and the gap between them showed a trend of increasing after fluctuations. Both of them had significant spatial and temporal divergence characteristics. (2) The urban-rural coupling coordination degree in China continued to increase during the study period and showed an overall pattern of “high in the east-west and low in the north and southwest”. The changes of relative development type indicated that new urbanization had far surpassed rural revitalization during the study period. (3) The coefficients of driving factors varied significantly in space, showing a hierarchical band distribution. Seven of the eight driving factors showed a strong positive correlation in the vast majority of regions. The results and suggestions of this research can further promote the organic combination of rural revitalization and new urbanization strategy, which is of great practical significance for narrowing the urban-rural gap and realizing sustainable urban-rural development. Likewise, it can be a reference for other developing countries around the world.