The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator is a poor predictor of postoperative complications in patients undergoing oncologic distal femoral replacement

Background Distal femur replacement (DFR) has become a preferred reconstruction for tumors involving the femur but is associated with known complications. The ACS-NSQIP surgical risk calculator is an online tool developed to estimate postoperative complications in the first 30-days, however, has not been used in patients undergoing DFR. The purpose of this study was determining the utility of the ACS-NSQIP calculator to predict postoperative complications. Methods 56 (30 male, 26 female) patients who underwent DFR were analyzed using the CPT codes: 27,365 (Under Excision Procedures on the Femur and Knee Joint), 27,447 (Arthroplasty, knee, condyle and plateau), 27,486 (Revision of total knee arthroplasty, with or without allograft), 27,487 (Revision of total knee arthroplasty, with or without allograft) and 27,488 (Repair, Revision, and/or Reconstruction Procedures on the Femur [Thigh Region] and Knee Joint). The predicted rates of complications were compared to the observed rates. Results Complications were noted in 30 (54%) of patients. The predicted risk of complications based off the CPT codes were: 27,356 (14%); 27,447 (5%); 27,486 (7%); 27,487 (8%) and 27,488 (12%). Based on ROC curves, the use of the ACS-NSQIP score were poor predictors of complications (27356, AUC 0.54); (27447, AUC 0.45); (27486, AUC 0.45); (27487, AUC 0.46); (27488, AUC 0.46). Conclusions Distal femur arthroplasty performed in the setting of oncologic orthopedics is a complex procedure in a “high risk” surgical group. The ACS-NSQIP does not adequately predict the incidence of complications in these patients and cannot be reliably used in the shared decision-making process.